2.3 Temporal Aggregation Distortions in Energy System Capacity Optimization
The analytical assessment of low-carbon transition pathways requires examining the physical degradation constraints of generation assets alongside the temporal dynamics of capacity optimization models. The long-term operation of nuclear power plants introduces operational challenges tied to material sensitization and corrosion resistance in critical circulation components such as 08CH18N10T stainless steel subjected to low-temperature thermal regimes [2]. These material fatigue and corrosion constraints determine the technical boundary conditions under which nuclear baseload capacity can be reliably extended without compromising operational safety. Conversely, the rapid acceleration of variable renewable generation involves distinct longevity considerations; probabilistic lifetime extension frameworks applied to wind infrastructure demonstrate that mid-term operational data and site-specific mechanical fatigue loads govern turbine reliability projections beyond initial design horizons [1]. Integrating these divergent asset life-cycle dynamics into regional power transition planning relies on capacity expansion frameworks that frequently employ time-series aggregation to balance short-term operational variations with long-term investment pathways [4]. When energy system models oversimplify these temporal dynamics, they risk distorting the trade-offs between retaining firm, aged nuclear assets and over-sizing variable wind capacities coupled with grid-level flexibility solutions [4]. Consequently, robust optimization models must incorporate realistic component degradation thresholds and fine-grained operational time steps to avoid misallocating capital between nuclear lifetime extensions and accelerated renewable deployments [1, 2, 4].