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Post-Quantum Migration Cost Models for US Financial Institutions

Cryptographic infrastructure transformation across the financial sector requires robust economic and mathematical frameworks to project capital expenditures accurately under deep technological uncertainty. The synthesis of parametric engineering estimates, structural risk indexing, and timeline compression models enables financial institutions to construct defensible migration budgets. Systemic quantification of cryptographic exposure resolves institutional inertia, aligning technical modernization with supervisory mandates.

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PhD Dissertation

Degree:
Post-Quantum Migration Cost Models for US Financial Institutions

Author:

Group

First M. Last

Advisor:

Dr. First Last

City, 2026

Contents

Introduction
Chapter 1. Foundations of Cryptographic Transition Economics in Banking
1.1 Quantum Threat Horizons and Asymmetric Cryptographic Exposure
1.2 Institutional Vulnerability in Wholesale and Retail Payment Architectures
1.3 Regulatory Imperatives and Federal Standards from NIST, NSA, and OMB
1.4 Economic Barriers and the Invisibility of Legacy Cryptographic Debt
Chapter 2. Methodological Dimensions of Post-Quantum Cost Estimation
2.1 Four-Basis Epistemological Taxonomy for Cybersecurity Expenditure
2.2 Parametric and Theoretical Modeling of Certificate Lifecycles
2.3 Analogical Derivations from Historical Financial Migrations
2.4 Structured Expert Elicitation under Deep Technological Uncertainty
Chapter 3. Architectural Decomposition and Asset Categorization
3.1 Real-Time Payment Gateways and Core Processing Infrastructure
3.2 Non-Human Identity Fleets and Agentic Workflow Cryptographic Debt
3.3 Distributed Ledger and Settlement Pipeline Vulnerabilities
3.4 Perimeter Demarcation: Controlled versus Outsourced Terminations
Chapter 4. Risk Prioritization and the Quantum Risk Index
4.1 Mathematical Formulation of Structural Probability of Compromise
4.2 Information Shelf-Life and Harvest-Now-Decrypt-Later Exposures
4.3 Valuation Degradation Across Confidentiality and Integrity Dimensions
4.4 Hierarchical Aggregation from Component to Enterprise Business Process
Chapter 5. Frontier Tooling, Timeline Compression, and Labor Dynamics
5.1 Frontier Artificial Intelligence Models in Code Remediation and Discovery
5.2 Human-Labor Bottleneck Collapse versus Regulated Cadence Constraints
5.3 Capital Allocation Under Compressed Two-to-Four-Year Windows
5.4 Operational Agility and Transitional Hybrid Overhead Budgeting
Chapter 6. Implementation Strategies and Strategic Governance Models
6.1 Dual-Stack Orchestration and Crypto-Agility Abstraction Layers
6.2 Procurement Policies and Third-Party Vendor Risk Capitalization
6.3 Governance Structures for Multi-Year Capital Allocation
Conclusion
Bibliography

Introduction

The impending operationalization of cryptographically relevant quantum computing poses an existential structural challenge to the integrity and confidentiality of the United States banking system. Fundamental transaction protocols, clearance networks, and institutional identity registries depend heavily on classical public-key cryptography, such as RSA and elliptic-curve schemes, which are vulnerable to polynomial-time factorization via Shor's algorithm [1, 4]. Despite emerging federal guidance, financial institutions face a profound economic barrier to transition, driven largely by the historical invisibility of cryptographic assets on corporate balance sheets and an absence of formal cost estimation frameworks [1].

Existing strategic models in cybersecurity economics predominantly address routine operational vulnerabilities or perimeter defenses, failing to quantify the systemic capital requirements of multi-domain cryptographic replacement across heterogeneous financial infrastructures [1, 5]. Banking environments exhibit complex interdependencies, encompassing legacy mainframes, real-time settlement gateways, distributed ledgers, and rapidly proliferating autonomous agentic systems [3, 4, 6]. Because replacing asymmetric primitives alters data packet sizes, transmission latencies, and certificate lifecycles, institutions risk severe compliance failures and operational disruption unless migration expenditures can be rigorously budgeted and scheduled [4, 5].

This dissertation develops a comprehensive cost estimation architecture specifically calibrated for post-quantum cryptographic transitions within US financial institutions. Synthesizing cross-class estimation methodologies with risk prioritization indexing, the research establishes a multi-dimensional analytical model that integrates parametric computational footprints, analogical historical transitions, and operational risk factors [1, 7]. The investigation demonstrates how formal risk scoring and automated code remediation compress conventional deployment schedules, establishing an empirical foundation for capital budgeting, executive oversight, and sustained regulatory compliance across the financial sector [2, 7].

Methodological Dimensions of Post-Quantum Cost Estimation

Quantifying migration expenditures for financial institutions demands an integrated methodology that bridges economic estimation and structural risk indexing under deep technological uncertainty. The methodological framework developed in this study synthesizes parametric cost modeling with risk-based prioritization to resolve the institutional invisibility of legacy cryptographic debt. In alignment with the four-basis epistemological taxonomy (Towards a Defensible Framework for Post-quantum Cryptography Cost Estimation, 2026), the estimation model organizes expenditure across parametric, theoretical, analogical, and judgmental classes. This cross-class triangulation provides robust empirical defensibility because each basis addresses distinct facets of cryptographic lifecycle management, from internal certificate inventories to regulatory capital implications. To ensure that capital allocations prioritize the most vulnerable payment architectures, the costing engine incorporates the Quantum Risk Index formulation (Towards a Quantum Risk Index, 2026). This structural index quantifies compromise probability across surface, exposure, scale, and persistence dimensions while evaluating asset degradation across confidentiality, integrity, and authenticity metrics. Furthermore, the estimation model accommodates timeline compression dynamics where automated analytical capabilities alter discovery and planning phases, shifting expenditure constraints toward non-compressible regulated verification cycles (Mythos-Class Frontier Models and the Compression of Post-Quantum Cryptography Migration Timelines, 2026). Hierarchical aggregation maps these technical risk coefficients directly into enterprise business process budgets, enabling institutional decision-makers to evaluate residual risk against marginal security expenditure. By establishing explicit perimeter boundaries that distinguish controlled assets from third-party terminations, the methodology generates verifiable capital forecasts that satisfy supervisory mandates while systematically eliminating cryptographic inertia across banking systems.

References

  1. Towards a Defensible Framework for Post-quantum Cryptography Cost Estimation
    Tim D. Williams
    DOI Link
  2. Mythos-Class Frontier Models and the Compression of Post-Quantum Cryptography Migration Timelines
    Robert Campbell
    DOI Link
  3. Post-Quantum Cryptography Migration for Agentic AI Systems
    Robert Campbell
    DOI Link
  4. Post-Quantum Cryptography Migration Framework for Real-Time Payment Gateways
    Vimal Teja Manne
  5. Post-Quantum Cryptography for Secure Banking Transactions
    Timothy Olatunji Ogundola
  6. Evaluation of Post-Quantum Distributed Ledger Cryptography
    Robert Campbell
  7. Towards a Quantum Risk Index: a risk-based framework for prioritizing Post-Quantum Cryptography Migration
    Iván Soto Macía
  8. Architecting Quantum-Resilient Blockchains: A Systems Framework for Post-Quantum Security, Governance, and Migration
    Hamed Taherdoost

Bibliography

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APA 7th Edition (Publication Manual)