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Consequential LCA of Battery Second-Life versus Immediate Recycling

Evaluation of end-of-life pathways for electric vehicle batteries requires determining the net environmental displacement effects caused by cascaded repurposing versus immediate material reclamation. Consequential life cycle modeling resolves the systemic market substitutions, marginal grid interactions, and deferred raw material recovery trade-offs inherent in both circular trajectories. The resulting evidence establishes robust decision thresholds for maximizing greenhouse gas reductions and critical mineral conservation.

Goal of work

Determine the net environmental trade-offs between battery second-life utilization and immediate recycling under prospective consequential system boundaries.

Methodology

Consequential life cycle assessment applying system boundary expansion, marginal market substitution analysis, and prospective temporal scenario modeling across secondary literature.

Scientific novelty

Formulates an integrated consequential and dynamic prospective LCA model capturing market displacements of deferred battery recycling.

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PhD Dissertation

Degree:
Consequential LCA of Battery Second-Life versus Immediate Recycling

Author:

Group

First M. Last

Advisor:

Dr. First Last

City, 2026

Contents

Introduction
Chapter 1. Conceptual Frameworks and Principles of Consequential Life Cycle Assessment
1.1 Theoretical Foundations of Consequential versus Attributional LCA
1.2 System Boundary Expansion and Marginal Market Effects
1.3 Temporal Dynamics and Prospective System Modeling
1.4 Methodological Integration of Circular Economy Trade-offs
Chapter 2. Technological Pathways for End-of-Life Lithium-Ion Batteries
2.1 Battery Degradation Mechanisms and Second-Life Repurposing Viability
2.2 Stationary Energy Storage Applications and Grid Displacement
2.3 Direct, Pyrometallurgical, and Hydrometallurgical Recycling Architectures
2.4 Material Recovery Efficiencies for Critical Mineral Supply Chains
Chapter 3. Consequential Modeling Methodology and Inventory Construction
3.1 Functional Unit Definition and Multidimensional System Boundaries
3.2 Identification of Marginal Suppliers in Secondary Raw Material Markets
3.3 Avoided Burden Allocations and Grid Decarbonization Trajectories
3.4 Uncertainty Quantification and Prospective Scenario Formulation
Chapter 4. Comparative Impact Assessment: Repurposing versus Direct Material Recovery
4.1 Global Warming Potential and Embodied Energy Displacements
4.2 Mineral Depletion and Ecotoxicity Across Closed-Loop Cascades
4.3 Temporal Sensitivity of Deferred Mineral Reclamation
4.4 Systemic Rebound Effects in Secondary Battery Markets
Chapter 5. Decision Horizons and Policy Implications for End-of-Life Management
5.1 Regulatory Frameworks and Extended Producer Responsibility Constraints
5.2 Economic Thresholds for Cascaded Utilization under Dynamic Grids
5.3 Strategic Guidelines for Automotive and Energy Storage Sectors
5.4 Critical Synthesis and Decision Support Matrices
Chapter 6. Theoretical Framework
Conclusion
Bibliography

Introduction

Decarbonization trajectories for global transport and power systems depend fundamentally on the scalable deployment of lithium-ion batteries [6]. The exponential expansion of electric mobility creates critical management challenges at vehicular end-of-life, necessitating rigorous environmental evaluation of competing circular pathways [3]. Evaluating whether retired packs should immediately enter material recovery or serve intermediate stationary storage applications requires understanding broader systemic and market-driven shifts [1].

Methodological limitations in conventional attributional life cycle assessments frequently misrepresent the systemic consequences of cascaded product pathways [2]. Traditional attributional assessments allocate static historical impacts without capturing how repurposing delays the provision of recycled critical minerals to virgin markets [4]. Marginal market adjustments, displacing either newly manufactured stationary storage units or virgin mineral extraction, generate complex trade-offs that demand dynamic consequential modeling frameworks [5].

Evaluating the environmental parity point between immediate recycling and secondary utilization hinges on marginal grid mix evolution and primary extraction displacement [2], [6]. Delayed hydrometallurgical recycling affects raw material markets during critical bottleneck periods, potentially altering the pace of battery electrification upstream [7]. Quantifying these dynamic interactions ensures that circular policies do not inadvertently increase net industrial emissions over prospective planning horizons [8].

This dissertation develops a comprehensive consequential life cycle assessment framework to quantify net environmental trade-offs between immediate recycling and cascaded second-life battery deployments across dynamic industrial contexts [1], [6]. By integrating prospective marginal inventory dynamics with market displacement mechanisms, the analysis provides robust decision pathways for sustainable end-of-life battery governance [2].

Methodology

Methodological formulation of end-of-life decision models requires resolving how systemic market displacements evolve across extended operating horizons. When evaluating electric vehicle battery pathways, assessing cascaded second-life applications against immediate material reclamation necessitates a prospective consequential life cycle assessment framework. Reusing, repurposing, and recycling lithium-ion batteries serve as vital operational pathways that mitigate broader ecological burdens by extending component lifespans and curtailing industrial reliance on virgin critical materials such as nickel, cobalt, and lithium (7819539). However, because cascaded secondary utilization deliberately postpones the direct metallurgical reclamation of these critical elements, inventory modeling must explicitly account for the time-dependent degradation of secondary cells alongside the prospective decarbonization of primary energy supply chains. To operationalize these intricate temporal mechanics, the methodological architecture adopts a prospective dynamic classification wherein physical flows, background processes, and induced market consequences are propagated forward from the point of decision (crossref-10-2139-ssrn-7070559). This modeling typology ensures that the avoided burdens attributable to stationary grid storage displacement are evaluated against evolving marginal electricity generation rather than static historical baselines. Furthermore, tracking systemic linkages dynamically over time prevents analytical distortion in the estimation of avoided virgin mineral refining, as future technological efficiencies in hydrometallurgical recovery and shifts in battery chemistries alter substitution equivalence. Incorporating consequential market propagation directly into inventory boundary expansion thus establishes an empirically robust basis for evaluating net systemic environmental impacts across cascading circular pathways.

References

  1. Consequential Life Cycle Assessment
    Martina Prox, Mary Ann Curran
    DOI Link
  2. Covering key aspects of time in life cycle assessment (LCA) through a harmonized set of types – from time-conventional LCA to consequential dynamic prospective LCA
    Thomas Schaubroeck
    DOI Link
  3. Recycling of Battery Technologies – Ecological Impact Analysis Using Life Cycle Assessment (LCA)
    Lea Unterreiner, Verena Jülch, Sören Reith
    DOI Link
  4. Consequential life cycle assessment to promote the recycling of metallurgic slag as new construction material
    Andrea Di Maria, Karel Van Acker
  5. Consequential life cycle assessment
    Sara Toniolo, Carlo Ingrao
  6. Lithium-ion battery end-of-life life cycle assessment
    Dunn, Jessica, Kendall, Alissa, Ritter, Kabian et al.
  7. Life cycle assessment of LTO-rich anode waste from lithium-ion battery with a hazardous waste management approach
    Arellano-Sanchez, Diana, Rinne, Marja, Wilson, Benjamin P. et al.
  8. Exploring the Environmental Impact of Textile Recycling in Europe: A Consequential Life Cycle Assessment
    Gustav Sandin, Matilda Lidfeldt, Maja Nellström

Bibliography

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Dissertation

APA 7th Edition (Publication Manual)