3.2 Benchmark Specification and Abnormal Return Calculation Models
The estimation of abnormal returns surrounding sovereign wealth fund negative screening announcements requires an econometric structure capable of disentangling normative ESG divestment signals from general asset repricing trends. Following established event-study architectures applied to sovereign investment actions (Sovereign Wealth Funds and Financial Stability—An Event Study Analysis, 2026), the baseline framework employs a market model benchmark parameterized over an estimation window prior to the public disclosure date. This specification models the expected return of target equities conditional on broader market portfolio returns, thereby isolating idiosyncratic abnormal performance driven by exclusion decisions. When sovereign funds alter portfolio allocations or mandate exclusions based on sustainability criteria, capital markets experience asymmetric information transmission that directly shifts target firms' reputational risk profiles (Agathokakological Investors? Sovereign Wealth Fund Ownership and Firm ESG Reputation Risk, 2022). Consequently, estimating cumulative abnormal returns over compact event windows—specifically spanning from the announcement day through immediate post-announcement trading sessions—prevents the contamination of empirical estimators by confounding corporate disclosures or wider sovereign asset composition shifts (The Role of Sovereign Wealth Funds in the Financial Market, 2026). To address potential cross-sectional correlation and volatility clustering across simultaneously excluded equities, test statistics incorporate standardized residual adjustments. This econometric calibration ensures that identified price penalties accurately reflect sovereign screening mandates rather than systemic portfolio reallocations.