2.1 Comparative Multi-Sectoral Energy System Modelling and Dynamic Grid Extension Formulations
To rigorously evaluate the integration of high-density marine generation into the Australian National Electricity Market, this research establishes a multi-sectoral energy system optimization methodology linked directly to locational pricing and transmission access analytics. The analytical architecture incorporates the multi-sectoral Australian Energy Modeling System framework to represent regional discrepancies in variable renewable resource availability and to quantify necessary inter-regional transmission network augmentations under deep decarbonisation scenarios (Decarbonization of Australia’s Energy System, 2020). By simulating cross-sectoral electrification across transport, industry, and power systems, the computational model tracks macro-level capacity expansion pathways and spatial generation allocations across eastern seaboard jurisdictions. However, standard macro-energy optimization tools often obscure local transmission congestion and inefficient merchant entry signals. To overcome this limitation, the methodological protocol integrates nodal and locational marginal pricing formulations to evaluate investment incentives in resource-rich, network-constrained coastal zones (Marginal Curtailment of Wind and Solar PV, 2024). Under traditional uniform or zonal pricing arrangements with pro-rata curtailment rules, private developer decisions reflect average rather than marginal curtailment rates, creating substantial risks of locational over-investment because the marginal contribution of an additional generator to network spillage significantly exceeds average historical curtailment levels (Marginal Curtailment of Wind and Solar PV, 2024). By incorporating export capacity charging mechanisms and locational marginal pricing metrics into the dispatch and investment formulation, the proposed modeling structure corrects distortionary entry signals, ensuring that high-capacity offshore wind facilities are evaluated against true system-level congestion costs, transmission rights, and physical network limits.