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Consequential LCA of Battery Recycling Routes in Australia

Consequential life cycle assessment models the systemic environmental impacts generated by technological shifts and market substitutions. This investigation evaluates Australian battery recycling pathways by mapping marginal resource displacements and prospective energy matrix interactions. The resulting synthesis identifies the operational and structural conditions required to maximize environmental benefits over virgin mineral extraction.

Goal of work

Evaluate consequential environmental impacts of battery recycling pathways in Australia by modeling marginal substitutions and displaced virgin mineral production.

Methodology

Consequential life cycle assessment comparative framework examining secondary operational datasets and marginal energy dispatch across recycling routes.

Scientific novelty

Resolves systemic displacement effects of Australian domestic battery recycling by integrating prospective consequential boundary models.

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Master's Thesis

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Consequential LCA of Battery Recycling Routes in Australia

Author:

Group

First M. Last

Advisor:

Dr. First Last

City, 2026

Contents

Introduction
Theoretical Foundations of Consequential Life Cycle Assessment
Distinction Between Attributional and Consequential Modelling Paradigms
Marginal Technologies and System Expansion Mechanisms
Temporal Dynamics and Prospective System Boundaries in LCA
Methodological Architecture for Australian Battery Recycling Systems
Definition of Functional Units and Displaced Primary Mineral Chains
Inventory Modelling of Hydrometallurgical and Pyrometallurgical Pathways
Electricity Grid Marginal Mixes and Regional Transport Modelling
Comparative Analysis of Environmental Consequences across Recycling Pathways
Avoided Burdens in Critical Mineral Refining and Domestic Processing
Trade-offs in Water Deprivation, Chemical Reagent Use, and Energy Intensity
Strategic Discussion and Policy Implications for Australian Circular Economy
Infrastructural Lock-ins and Feedstock Supply Chain Uncertainties
Recommendations for Domestic Mineral Stewardship and Clean Energy Policies
Conclusion
Bibliography

Introduction

Consequential life cycle assessment provides an analytical lens to evaluate how large-scale technological transitions alter global production networks and resource demands. As electrification accelerates, end-of-life battery management in Australia faces significant structural shifts, moving from export reliance to domestic processing. Determining the net environmental implications requires rigorous evaluation of marginal market substitutions rather than static average accounting [1], [4].

Traditional attributional frameworks frequently fail to capture system-wide ripple effects caused by market-driven substitutions and evolving grid mixes. In the context of Australian battery stewardship, different processing pathways—predominantly pyrometallurgical, hydrometallurgical, and direct recycling—induce distinct market responses. These decisions displace primary mining operations and chemical refining processes differently, which can produce unforeseen ecological trade-offs across water, land, and carbon footprints [2], [7].

The goal of this study is to systematically examine the consequential environmental impacts of competing lithium-ion battery recycling pathways across the Australian resource landscape. Applying consequential inventory principles and prospective temporal parameters enables the identification of induced market mechanisms [1], [3]. This approach clarifies the environmental credits and trade-offs of localized mineral recovery versus established virgin extraction.

Evaluating the broader systemic implications allows policymakers and industrial stakeholders to anticipate resource constraints and infrastructure vulnerabilities within the domestic supply chain. By integrating marginal energy forecasting with displacement dynamics, this investigation outlines the strategic conditions under which domestic battery recycling delivers genuine net-positive sustainability benefits for the Australian transition [4], [7].

Strategic Discussion and Policy Implications for Australian Circular Economy

Evaluating battery recycling pathways within Australia requires reconciling consequential life cycle assessment principles with evolving domestic industrial infrastructure. Scholarly evaluations demonstrate that consequential modelling captures induced systemic shifts and market substitutions, moving beyond the descriptive boundaries of attributional frameworks. In circular economy assessments, consequential frameworks illuminate how prospective recycling interventions alter broader supply chains, though outcomes remain sensitive to displaced virgin production and displacement replacement rates (crossref-10-3390-su17051931). However, static consequential models frequently neglect temporal dynamics, overlooking how background energy transitions and technology evolution reshape marginal impacts over time. As methodological perspectives emphasize, life cycle assessments must systematically integrate time configurations, distinguishing prospective temporal reference points and dynamic process evolution from static present assumptions to accurately reflect induced systemic changes (crossref-10-2139-ssrn-7070559). The primary research gap in the Australian context lies in the lack of harmonized prospective consequential inventories that simultaneously capture evolving national grid mixes and regional chemical supply chains for secondary mineral refining. Consequently, static models risk misestimating the net climate and resource benefits of domestic hydrometallurgical and pyrometallurgical facilities. Furthermore, this study possesses methodological limitations. Data constraints surround marginal supplier identification in Australian critical mineral refining, and uncertainty persists regarding market rebound effects and regional transport logistics across distributed collection hubs. Addressing these infrastructural and temporal uncertainties is essential to establish credible circular stewardship policies that reliably displace virgin mineral extraction without inducing unanticipated domestic environmental burdens.

References

  1. Covering key aspects of time in life cycle assessment (LCA) through a harmonized set of types – from time-conventional LCA to consequential dynamic prospective LCA
    Thomas Schaubroeck
    DOI Link
  2. Consequential Life Cycle Assessment
    Martina Prox, Mary Ann Curran
    DOI Link
  3. Consequential life cycle assessment
    Sara Toniolo, Carlo Ingrao
    DOI Link
  4. Attributional and Consequential Life Cycle Assessment
    Tomas Ekvall
  5. Consequential life cycle assessment to promote the recycling of metallurgic slag as new construction material
    Andrea Di Maria, Karel Van Acker
  6. Parametric Life Cycle Assessment of Chemical Recycling of Nylon-6 to Caprolactam
    Ann-Joelle Minor, Ruben Goldhahn, Caroline Ganzer et al.
  7. Exploring the Environmental Impact of Textile Recycling in Europe: A Consequential Life Cycle Assessment
    Gustav Sandin, Matilda Lidfeldt, Maja Nellström
  8. A comparative life cycle assessment of recycled tire rubber applications in sustainable earthquake-resistant construction
    Ahmed Yar Akhtar, Hing‐Ho Tsang

Bibliography

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